I’ve been doing some work on volatility products and I’m particularly interested in finding long volatility strategies.

Unfortunately, there are several reasons why betting on volatility going up is difficult:

  1. Stock markets tend to go up and volatility tends to drop.
  2. Volatility products that track the VIX suffer from time decay.
  3. Macroeconomic factors and central banks work to reduce volatility.

Read more »


Humans have been trying to time the stock market with fancy indicators since the beginning of time. But do they work? In this article I test five different market timing indicators. They are:

  • Coppock Curve
  • Zweig Breadth Thrust
  • Arms Index (TRIN)
  • McClellan Oscillator
  • No. Of New 52-Week Lows

These market indicators are all available with my historical database from Norgate Data. Read more »


It’s a fair assumption that managers will have a better insight into the financial state of the company they’re running than outside investors. A manager will act and make decisions that are based around what they perceive the outlook for that company to be.

It’s also assumed that when a company makes a corporate action, such as a share buyback, a merger, a dividend or an equity issue, as soon as it’s announced, the market factors that into the price to reflect the potential long term impact of the decision. Read more »


Ray Dalio says that every time he learns something new or makes a mistake in the markets he writes it down so that he can go over it later and learn from it.

I’ve been doing something similar and it does help keep a record of things. Here’s a list of the most important trading lessons that I have learnt over the years. Read more »