When times are good the economy is strong and everyone has more money to spend. So is there any relationship between consumer spending and the stock market?

A new research paper suggests there is and provides a novel way of measuring consumer spending on a daily basis. Instead of looking at more traditional measures (such as personal income or consumer sentiment) the paper focuses on box office earnings. Read more »


I’ve been doing some work on volatility products and I’m particularly interested in finding long volatility strategies.

Unfortunately, there are several reasons why betting on volatility going up is difficult:

  1. Stock markets tend to go up and volatility tends to drop.
  2. Volatility products that track the VIX suffer from time decay.
  3. Macroeconomic factors and central banks work to reduce volatility.

Read more »


Humans have been trying to time the stock market with fancy indicators since the beginning of time. But do they work? In this article I test five different market timing indicators. They are:

  • Coppock Curve
  • Zweig Breadth Thrust
  • Arms Index (TRIN)
  • McClellan Oscillator
  • No. Of New 52-Week Lows

These market indicators are all available with my historical database from Norgate Data. Read more »