The 200 day moving average is an extremely popular indicator among traders and trend followers. When a stock is above the 200 day MA, it’s said to be in an uptrend and when it’s below, it’s said to be in a downtrend.

In this article I look at a strategy that buys upward trending stocks as they pull back towards the 200 day moving average line. I test the signal on S&P 500 stocks back to 2000 but I find no real edge to this signal on it’s own. Read more »


The concept of trend following is based on the belief that security prices move in upwards or downward trends over time and that the surest way to profit from those moves is to attempt to ride those trends.

Despite some claims that trend following is a strategy for nonconformists, trend following is in fact hugely popular, particularly among retail investors. Read more »


Whatever your opinions are about the concept of back-testing, there are few better ways to build a trading system than through the back-testing of historical data.

Back-testing allows us to answer critical questions like ‘how many positions should I hold in a portfolio?’, ‘how much risk should I take?’ or ‘how effective was this strategy in the past?’ Read more »