After a period of some thirty years of increasing bond prices, and with the Federal Reserve committed to a policy of gradually increasing interest rates, the time for long-based trading strategies on US treasuries could well be coming to an end.
Many, including former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, have called the bond market a bubble ready to pop. With this in mind, this article presents a simple trading strategy that shorts the US ten year note using the ATR (average true range) indicator.
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Longer term readers and members will know that I try to keep Marwood Research updated with new trading strategies and information on a monthly basis.
This month we have added a brand new trading strategy to the program called Trading For Yield. Read more »
The 200 day moving average is an extremely popular indicator among traders and trend followers. When a stock is above the 200 day MA, it’s said to be in an uptrend and when it’s below, it’s said to be in a downtrend.
In this article I look at a strategy that buys upward trending stocks as they pull back towards the 200 day moving average line. I test the signal on S&P 500 stocks back to 2000 but I find no real edge to this signal on it’s own. Read more »
In this article I will show that there is the possibility of a profitable edge when trading breakout stocks on high volume days.
However, the edge requires an ability to foresee such high volume in advance. This is no easy task but the data suggests it could be an interesting line for future research. Read more »
The concept of trend following is based on the belief that security prices move in upwards or downward trends over time and that the surest way to profit from those moves is to attempt to ride those trends.
Despite some claims that trend following is a strategy for nonconformists, trend following is in fact hugely popular, particularly among retail investors. Read more »
The new course Hedge Fund Trading Systems Part Two is now open for enrolment. This course contains five new trading systems that I have developed.
Each system has been run on robust historical data and shows a consistent, profitable edge in back-testing. The rules for each system are fully explained and the Amibroker source code is also provided. Read more »
In this article I implement Ray Dalio’s All Weather portfolio using popular ETFs and I back-test the strategy using Amibroker. The results show nice risk-adjusted returns for investors. Read more »
Whatever your opinions are about the concept of back-testing, there are few better ways to build a trading system than through the back-testing of historical data.
Back-testing allows us to answer critical questions like ‘how many positions should I hold in a portfolio?’, ‘how much risk should I take?’ or ‘how effective was this strategy in the past?’ Read more »
All system developers and traders should keep a notepad on their desk so that they can write down their ideas and keep a record of any back-testing that they do. I don’t know what it is, but there is something about writing down on pad and paper that engages the mind far more so than inputting into a spreadsheet. Read more »
In this article I present a simple and quick trading strategy for shorting leveraged ETFs.
Using historical data from Norgate and the back-testing program from Amibroker I reveal a potentially profitable strategy that could benefit from further development. Read more »