I’ve been doing some work on volatility products and I’m particularly interested in finding long volatility strategies.

Unfortunately, there are several reasons why betting on volatility going up is difficult:

  1. Stock markets tend to go up and volatility tends to drop.
  2. Volatility products that track the VIX suffer from time decay.
  3. Macroeconomic factors and central banks work to reduce volatility.

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It’s a fair assumption that managers will have a better insight into the financial state of the company they’re running than outside investors. A manager will act and make decisions that are based around what they perceive the outlook for that company to be.

It’s also assumed that when a company makes a corporate action, such as a share buyback, a merger, a dividend or an equity issue, as soon as it’s announced, the market factors that into the price to reflect the potential long term impact of the decision. Read more »