2014 was not an amazing year for stock pickers.
Although most benchmark indexes managed to finish in double digits, these were choppy conditions for traders and many did not manage to beat their benchmarks.
The S&P 500 Index returned 11.39% for the year, while the Dow Jones returned 7.52% and the Nasdaq returned 13.40% (all three figures excluding dividends).
Now that the year is over, I am able to run all 26 trading systems from the How to Beat Wall Street course and see how they did over the course of the year.
Systems were run from the 1.1.2014 – 1.1.2015 on the S&P 1500 universe of stocks. As usual, stock data was provided by Norgate Premium Data. Commissions were set at $0.01 per share to mimic slippage and fees. And remember that these are hypothetical results.
2014 HTBWS Trading System Performance Results:
Trading System 1:
EMA Crossover: CAR: 8.77%
Trading System 2:
4 Weeks Up In A Row: CAR: 6.24%
Trading System 3:
Trading The Noise: CAR: 1.19%
Trading System 4:
Trading The Noise + Shorts: CAR: 5.60%
Trading System 5:
Trading Gradients: CAR: 0.11%
Trading System 6:
See Trading System 23 for an improved version.
Trading System 7:
Donchian Style Breakout: CAR: 27.63%
Trading System 8:
Breakout With EMA Confirmation: CAR: 10.80%
Trading System 9:
Trend Following With The TEMA: CAR: 7.84%
Trading System 10:
Bull/Bear Fear: CAR: 11.80%
Trading System 11:
Simple RSI With Equity Curve Filter: CAR: 1.60%
Trading System 12:
The Range Indicator: CAR: 6.22%
Trading System 13:
Volatility Breakout With Bollinger Bands & Chande VPI: CAR: 3.60%
Trading System 14:
Trading The Gap: CAR: -10.53%
Trading System 15:
RSI With The VIX: CAR: 9.74%
Trading System 16:
Trading The TED Spread: CAR: 20.29%
Trading System 17:
Simple MACD With EMA Filter: CAR: -0.91%
Trading System 18:
Cherry Picking Penny Stocks: CAR: 12.57%
Trading System 19:
Using The COT Report: CAR: 9.95%
Trading System 20:
Finding Cheap Stocks With Linear Reg & ATR: CAR: 6.62%
Trading System 21:
11-Rule Graham Value System: CAR: 16.97%
Trading System 22:
Templeton Modified: CAR: 6.51%
Trading System 23:
Improving DCA With Stock Picking: CAR: 1.68%
Trading System 24:
Trend Following With A Twist: CAR: 13.02%
Trading System 25:
Fear Index & Market Timing: CAR: 2.22%
Trading System 26:
Unusual Volume System: CAR: 26.21%
Analysis & Conclusion
Overall, the performance of the trading systems has been quite reasonable, with a couple of stand-out performances.
There were only a couple of systems that lost money in 2014 and that is what you would probably expect in a year that was largely positive for the benchmark stock indexes.
These tests (barring system 25) were all run on the S&P 1500 universe of companies from Premium Data which includes historical constituents. It may be that testing the systems on other stock universes (the Russell 3000 for example) could result in even better results.
For now, I am quite happy with the results of these simple systems and will continue to monitor them through 2015.
To see the full rules for these trading systems, enroll in HTBWS now.
The above results are hypothetical returns based on back-tested results. While every effort was made to check and verify the results, no responsibility will be accepted for any errors or mistakes. Past performance is no guide to future returns and trading in stocks and all financial instruments involves a significant amount of risk where you could lose all of your capital.