Humans have been trying to time the stock market with fancy indicators since the beginning of time. But do they work? In this article I test five different market timing indicators. They are: Coppock Curve Zweig Breadth Thrust Arms Index (TRIN) McClellan Oscillator No. Of New 52-Week Lows These market indicators are all available with […]
I have recently been looking at some old materials and I came across another interesting work by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez regarding Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands were developed by John Bollinger and can be used in a number of different ways. In this article, we will use Bollinger Bands to find mean reversion trades.
Japanese candlestick patterns are useful because they allow traders to quickly visualise price action in the market. There are many different patterns and many different opinions on their effectiveness. In this article we will look at a trading system that attempts to dynamically select the best performing candlestick pattern from the previous six months and […]
Financial visualisation website FINVIZ.com is one of my favourite trading tools. I use it every day to keep a tab on markets and look at charts. The stock screener on Finviz is also one of the best I’ve found with more than 60 filters that can be applied to 7000 US stocks. In the rest […]
After a period of some thirty years of increasing bond prices, and with the Federal Reserve committed to a policy of gradually increasing interest rates, the time for long-based trading strategies on US treasuries could well be coming to an end. Many, including former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, have called the bond market a bubble […]
In this article I will show that there is the possibility of a profitable edge when trading breakout stocks on high volume days. However, the edge requires an ability to foresee such high volume in advance. This is no easy task but the data suggests it could be an interesting line for future research.
The new course Hedge Fund Trading Systems Part Two is now open for enrolment. This course contains five new trading systems that I have developed. Each system has been run on robust historical data and shows a consistent, profitable edge in back-testing. The rules for each system are fully explained and the Amibroker source code […]
In this article I implement Ray Dalio’s All Weather portfolio using popular ETFs and I back-test the strategy using Amibroker. The results show nice risk-adjusted returns for investors.
Whatever your opinions are about the concept of back-testing, there are few better ways to build a trading system than through the back-testing of historical data. Back-testing allows us to answer critical questions like ‘how many positions should I hold in a portfolio?’, ‘how much risk should I take?’ or ‘how effective was this strategy in the past?’
All system developers and traders should keep a notepad on their desk so that they can write down their ideas and keep a record of any back-testing that they do. I don’t know what it is, but there is something about writing down on pad and paper that engages the mind far more so than […]